TN805 : Open pit mines planning under price and grade uncertainty
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics Engineering > MSc > 2017
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Abstarct: Production planning is one of the most important subjects in mining operation, which will not only be a means for investors to understand the expected liquidity of the project, but also strategic decisions from open pit mine production planning may have important influence in the project lifetime. The deterministic methods for mine production planning, assume all the input parameters (such as ore grade and price) constantly. However, the lack of attention to the existing uncertainty will lead to undesirable results in achieving the correct and optimal program. In this thesis, a new approach to the planning of mining production under conditions of ore grade and price uncertainty is proposed baxsed on the information gap-baxsed decision-making theory. The prediction of prices and estimates for ore grade in mining projects, has always been and will be uncertain. To provide more precise price prediction and estimates, a large amount of information is needed. which requires a lot of time and cost to provide this volume of information and it is not possible in most mining projects. The information gap decision theory baxsed on the information gap emphasizes that decisions under strict conditions of uncertainty should not require additional information about the information available to the decision maker. In fact, this method helps planners to make good decisions with low data. In the approach presented in this thesis, an uncertainty radius is defined baxsed on the theory for each of the uncertain parameters (ore grade the price). To minimize the technical and economic requirements of the project, the maximum radius of the uncertainties is identified. And on that basis, production planning is carried out. With the use of the information of an open ore mine, the results of using the proposed approach were examined and validated. To simulate the price uncertainty, utilizing the bimonthly tree method and to simulate the uncertainty of the grade, utilizing the simulation model was proposed. Planning performed with the proposed approach was protected against the uncertainty of the ore grade and price. The difference between the actual NPV value and the NPV obtained from the proposed approach was about 8%, and the difference between the actual NPV and the NPV obtained by the deterministic method was about 31%. This suggests that in an unfavorable economic situation and lower prices, the proposed approach would produce closer results to reality, and planning would be more reliable in uncertainty conditions. The results show that the proposed approach can produce acceptable results with higher degrees of certainty and stability than deterministic methods.
Keywords:
#Open-pit mine planning #Price uncertainty #Ore grade uncertainty #Information gap decision theory
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
Visitor: