TN131 : System Dynamics Modeling of Mine Sector Management to preferment on Economy
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics Engineering > PhD > 2009
Authors:
Reza Shakoor Shahabi [Author], Reza Khalou Kakaie[Supervisor], R.Ramazani [Supervisor], L.Agheli [Advisor]
Abstarct: Mine sector management has been defined as an application of management principles on optimum exploitation of mineral resources baxsed on the combination of firm and national strategies. In this research, management of mine sector elements to promotion share sector in national economy has been simulated with system dynamics approach. Value added improvement has been considered as a major factor of economic promotion. In addition, effective parameters on unit product value added and optimum exploitation has been investigated. The whole model has eight sub models including supply and demand, mineral resources, value added, cost and revenue, investment, technology, labor and capital. To develop the model, at first all the information of eight selected minerals were gathered, and then the Cobb Douglas function with capital and labor factors have been determined for unit product value add by applying production function theory. Moreover, other effective parameters and related feedbacks for each factor have been obtained by the use of cause and effect analysis. Qualitative properties of labor force also have been categorized into three groups including experience, knowledge and skill. Subsequently research and development activities, capital efficiency and labor quality as an operative factor of technology improvement have been extended. For mine exploitation management, the firm and governmental strategies for exploitation of mineral resources baxsed on exhaustible resource economics theory have been combined with regards to the mine capacity utilization, and the dynamic relation of optimum exploitation has been obtained baxsed on the maximization of net social benefit and profit present value. Final model of value added promotion has been developed baxsed on the combination of unit product value add and final production. In order to validation of the model, the output of each sub model is compared with real data. The result shows the good agreement between both output and real data. Major parameters trend under different scenarios have been estimated by running the model for period of 1995 to 2005. The result shows that mine value added reach to 12000 Milliard rial at 2015 by 13.3 percent annual rates. As well as, in this year annual mine exploitation will reach to 481 million tons with 13.1 percent annual rate. In order to evaluate policies, the effect of different policy plans for technology improvement on model has been assessed. It could be concluded that the potential of value added could be increase up to 20% by technology improvement policies.
Keywords:
#Mine sector management #System dynamics #mine value added promotion #mine policy making #technology Link
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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