TN1142 : Reliability-baxsed Design of Casing using Monte Carlo Sampling Method
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics Engineering > MSc > 2023
Authors:
Mehdi Tamimi [Author], Sajad Negahban[Supervisor], [Advisor]
Abstarct: The design of the casing plays a crucial role in the success of well drilling and accounts for a significant portion of the overall well costs. The objective of casing design is to achieve an optimal design that can withstand pressure and other factors that may affect the casing throughout the well’s lifespan. Traditionally, casing design has been approached through manual calculations, which determine the minimum casing strength requirements by comparing the casing strength to the magnitude of the extreme random loads that may occur during the well’s lifespan. However, this approach is often overly conservative and can result in expensive design plans for extreme conditions. Additionally, it does not account for the probability or consequence of different failure modes of the wall tube. To address these limitations, a Monte Carlo simulation method (MCS) is proposed for wall pipe design. This method explicitly considers the uncertainty in the loads of the wall pipe by assigning a probability distribution to the safety factors of crumpling, bursting, and tension affecting the design loads. By predicting the probability of the safety factor of the wall pipe, the MCS method provides a more accurate and economical view of the real uncertainties in the design. Acceptable pipe design load probabilities can be selected baxsed on cost and operating conditions that the wall pipe will endure. Therefore, a probabilistic approach to wall pipe design is more flexible and allows for uncertainty-adaptive designs compared to the conventional manual calculation method.
Keywords:
#Keywords: casing design #Monte Carlo method #uncertainty #MATLAB software #probabilistic method Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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