S569 : Study of the Effect of Gotvand Reservoir on the Land Use Changes Using Land Use Change Modeling (LCM)
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Agricultural Engineering > MSc > 2021
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Abstarct: Dam construction can have a significant impact on the development of geographical areas, the effects of which can be positive or harmful. One of the ways to study the impact of dams on the environment and natural resources around dams is to monitor land use change and land cover. Examining land cover changes can play an important role in environmental management and planning. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the land use changes of Gotvand Dam on the region and also by modeling the changes in the region and using the LCM model to be able to predict land use changes for the future. Therefore, Landsat 5, 7 and 8 images for 1991, 1387 and 2020 were used to prepare land use maps of the study area. Images of all three time periods were classified into six categories of water, constructed areas, agriculture, rangeland, barren and meadow using object-oriented classification. Using the prepared user maps, the changes made in the two periods were studied. Transmission force modeling baxsed on multi-laxyer artificial neural network was used to predict land use status. The results of transmission modeling using artificial neural network in most sub-models showed high accuracy (50 to 85%). Using the land use maps of 1991 and 2008 and the strict forecasting model, the land use map for 1399 was predicted. To evaluate the accuracy of this map, it was compared with the terrestrial reality map of 2020, which obtained a kappa coefficient of 81%. Finally, using the calibration period of 1387 and 2020, land cover was predicted for 2050. The total error in modeling for 2020 was about 19.25 percent, indicating the conformity of the predicted image with the terrestrial reality image and the acceptability of the model. Also, the change forecast map was prepared by CA-MARKOV method. Using the LCM model, the land use map for 2050 was predicted. The results showed that during the years 2020 to 2020, the users will not change.
Keywords:
#Gotvand Dam #Water salinity #predict #LCM Model #Remote sensing #Artificial neural network Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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