QE440 : Investigation of spatio- temporal pattern of seismicity in Alborz East
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Geosciences > MSc > 2019
Authors:
: Negar Sayadi SHahraki [Author], Ramazan Ramazani Oomali[Supervisor], Mohammad Reza Rabiei[Advisor]
Abstarct: In this research Seismic temporal pattern, spatial pattern and spatial- temporal pattern of seismicity (larger than or equal to 3 Richter ) in the Eastern Alborz of data over a period of 10 years and 4 months (years 2008–2018) were statistically evaluated. For this propose, Time series analysis and modeling used to find the data generating pattern. spatial and spatio-temporal study of seismic data are classified into three groups of geostatistical and grid data and point patterns according to the location of the data and the random variable studied. In this research, we use spatial point patterns and the laplace approximation of closed packed nest (INLA) models to fit LGCP models. fit statistical analyzes on seismic data larger or equal to 3 richter East Alborz zone by magnatude, depth and logarithm of energy using time series methods, model IMA (1,1) on data In terms of magnitude and model MA (1) in terms of depth and model ARMA (1,1) in terms of logarithms energy. According to the MINITAB, seismic software outputs obtained for the next 5 seasons with a magnitude of 3.6 and a depth of 14.50 Km and a logarithm of energy projected for the next 5 seasons with the least logarithms, we have the energy of 14.22 erg and the highest energy log of 17.68 erg. Earthquake scattering shows the activities of Caspian, North Alborz, Allah Band, Shahrood, Damghan, Semnan, Troud and Astane faults and by far from the mentioned faults And the risk of seismic activity is reduceding.
Keywords:
#Seismic Time Pattern #Seismic- Spatial Pattern #Time Series Analysis #Dot Patterns #Cox Loggaussian Processes #Laplace Approximation Closed Nest #Spatio-temporal Seismic Pattern Link
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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