HA576 : Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Controlling Inflation in Iraq
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2026
Authors:
[Author], Sayyed Mojtaba Mirlohi[Supervisor], [Supervisor]
Abstarct: Inflation, as one of the most critical macroeconomic challenges, has always been a primary concern for economic policymakers. In countries with oil-baxsed economic structures like Iraq, controlling inflation is particularly complex due to heavy reliance on foreign exchange revenues and oil price volatility. The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation in the Iraqi economy and to examine the impact of four main monetary policy instruments including the policy interest rate, reserve requirement ratio, open market operations, and exchange rate management on inflation. This study employed a quantitative-analytical approach using quarterly time series data of Iraqi macroeconomic variables over the period 2004 to 2023 (80 quarterly observations) and applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model. The findings revealed that the policy interest rate, with a coefficient of -0.452 (p-value=0.000), is the strongest inflation-reducing factor, while the exchange rate, with a coefficient of 0.342 (p-value=0.000), is the strongest inflation-increasing factor. The reserve requirement ratio, with a coefficient of -0.325 (p-value=0.003), and open market operations, with a coefficient of -0.187 (p-value=0.027), also demonstrated significant negative effects on inflation. The error correction term, with a coefficient of -0.412 (p-value=0.000), indicates that approximately 41.2 percent of short-term disequilibria are adjusted toward the long-run equilibrium each quarter. baxsed on the findings, all four research hypotheses were confirmed. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests also confirmed the structural stability of the model throughout the study period. Finally, evidence-baxsed and practical recommendations were proposed, including the proactive use of the policy interest rate, stabilization of the foreign exchange market through transparent dollar auctions, development of the government securities market to enhance the effectiveness of open market operations, strengthening of monetary-fiscal policy coordination through the establishment of an oil stabilization fund, and gradual reduction of dollarization through the development of electronic payment instruments. This research, by providing the first quantitative analysis of the simultaneous effects of four monetary policy instruments in Iraq, demonstrates that the Iraqi economy stands at a historical crossroads between continuing the path of inflationary volatility and choosing the path of structural reforms.
Keywords:
#Monetary Policy #Inflation #Policy Interest Rate #Reserve Requirement Ratio #Open Market Operations #Exchange Rate #Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model #Iraqi Economy. Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
Visitor: