HA573 : Diversifying non-oil revenue sources on increasing financial stability: An empirical studyof the Iraqi economy for the period (2004-2024)
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2026
Authors:
[Author], [Supervisor]
Abstarct: This study investigates the impact of diversifying non-oil revenue sources on financial stability in the Iraqi economy over the period 2004-2024. As one of the most prominent examples of a rentier state, Iraq's economy suffers from over 90% budget dependence on oil revenues, making it highly vulnerable to global price shocks. For empirical analysis, time series data from the Central Bank of Iraq and the World Bank were utilized, employing the Johansen cointegration approach and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Results indicate that non-oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on GDP with a coefficient of 0.32; meaning that a one percent increase in these revenues leads to a 0.32 percent growth in GDP. In contrast, inflation rate and exchange rate exhibit negative and significant coefficients. The error correction term coefficient (-0.48) indicates a relatively favorable speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Diagnostic tests (autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, normality of residuals) and CUSUM/CUSUMQ stability tests confirm the validity and reliability of the model. The research findings confirm that diversifying non-oil revenues can serve as an "anchor of financial stability," but achieving this requires structural reforms including digitalization of the tax and customs systems, implementation of value-added tax (VAT), combating administrative corruption, and establishing a sovereign wealth fund to separate the current budget from oil revenues
Keywords:
#Revenue Diversification #Financial Stability #Rentier Economy #Non-Oil Revenues #Error Correction Model (VECM) #Iraqi Economy. Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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