HA529 : Purposeful Equilibrium, Analysis, and Resolution of Financial Crises in Retirement Funds through System Dynamics Techniques
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2024
Authors:
Abstarct: This research examines purposeful equilibrium, analysis, and resolution of financial crises in retirement systems through system dynamics techniques. In this context, two methods—mandatory and self-employed—are analyzed by simulating the income and expenditure flow of the social security fund. The research model is designed using a system dynamics approach and executed with Vensim software. The data used were sourced from official statistical resources such as the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank. The results indicate that by abandoning the mandatory system and combining employment improvement policies, the funds' balances will remain positive in the long term, and social security will not face challenges in paying retirees' pensions. The investigations also reveal that a 2% reduction in market interest rates will lead to a decrease in the fund balance in the year 1447, while a 2% increase in interest rates will result in an increase in the fund balance. An increase in the employment period by 2 years contributes to the growth of the fund balance and reduces financial pressure on them. Conversely, a decrease in the employment period and early retirement may lead to a significant reduction in fund balances and the emergence of financial crises. Additionally, the results suggest that financial crises have a direct impact on the financial resources of retirement funds, and if economic conditions improve, the balances of these funds will gradually increase. Ultimately, reducing financial crises and extending the retirement period creates favorable conditions for improving the financial status of the funds and contributes to strengthening the country’s economic structures. This study emphasizes that improving employment and effectively managing crises can lead to the sustainability of retirement funds and bolster the country's economy.
Keywords:
#financial crises #social security system #retirement funds #system dynamics Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
Visitor:
Visitor: