HA522 : Identifying and prioritizing delay risks in decentralized projects using a multi-criteria decision analysis approach under z-numbers
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2025
Authors:
Zahra Hamdam [Author], Mohammad Rostami[Supervisor]
Abstarct: Identifying and prioritizing delay risks in decentralized projects is a significant challenge in project management, primarily due to their distributed nature and lack of centralized control. This study employs a hybrid methodological approach that combines both quantitative and qualitative analyses to explore five distinct categories of risks—technical, commercial-economic, environmental, legal-regulatory, and operational—commonly encountered in decentralized projects. A panel of twelve subject matter experts provided valuable insights for this research.The data collection began with a questionnaire aimed at identifying potential delay risks, which led to the identification of fifty-one unique risk factors across the five categories. A follow-up questionnaire was then used to assess the perceived importance of each risk factor and the experts' confidence in their evaluations. The data collected were analyzed using the Z-fuzzy number method, confirming the validity of all fifty-one risk components as recognized by the expert panel. Subsequently, the Z-SWARA (Z-number Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis) method was applied to assign specific weights to each risk factor. In the operational category, "Changes in material delivery schedules" emerged as the most critical risk (weight: 0.465). In the technical category, "Deficiencies in contractor expertise" was identified as the leading concern (weight: 0.459). The most significant risk in the commercial-economic category was "International sanctions" (weight: 0.452). For environmental risks, "Regional site insecurity" was deemed most significant (weight: 0.456), while in the legal-regulatory category, "Reductions in civil appropriations at the local or macro level due to managerial changes" stood out as the primary issue (weight: 0.458).Overall analysis revealed that commercial-economic risks were the most critical category (weight: 0.399). In conclusion, effective management of decentralized projects requires a thorough risk identification process, a prioritization frxamework baxsed on impact and likelihood, and proactive mitigation strategies. The lack of an integrated risk management system and insufficient proactive risk identification during the early stages of projects are key factors that exacerbate these challenges. Therefore, adopting a systematic and preemptive approach is essential for reducing the adverse effects associated with these risks.
Keywords:
#decentralized project #Z-numbers #Z-SWARA method #project management Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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