HA127 : A System Dynamics Simulation Model for Forecasting Energy Demand in Tehran County
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2016
Authors:
Rasool hatami [Author], Mohammad Ali Molaei[Supervisor], Hossein Rezaei [Advisor]
Abstarct: Most studies that have been done in terms of demand for energy carriers in Iran's econometric methods. Research has been conducted in Iran to predict and evaluate all energy carriers (gas, electricity, gasoline, diesel and propane) in domestic, commercial and industrial system dynamics method to pay and this is one of the innovations of this research be. This study examined the effect of the implementation of the model Vvdrvyl in Tehran for the following models of population, housing, land, area attractions, businesses and attractive business deals in energy demand. Energy demand model using 1392 data and system dynamics method has been implemented and to predict energy demand is 1392-1412 paid Tehran in years. As a result of this investigation a drive system for forecasting demand for energy carriers in Tehran has created a successful way to assess the impact of population, housing, and business attractiveness of demand for energy carriers in the region. Increase skilled labor in the area of new jobs and therefore energy demand increases. Tehran rank in terms of cost of doing business from 25 to 1, the highest rating was upgraded. That puts business owners in optimal conditions, making it easier to create jobs in Tehran. As a result, energy demand increases. Loss of service area from 1.25 to 0.8 numerical value that represents the service will be better and therefore more attractive. Increase services available in the region to attract more people in the region and it encourages the growth of housing and increase demand for energy carriers. Tehran upgrade from fourth to fifth rank the highest in terms of full coverage is nothing more jobs to the region attracts because it's one of the components of business attractiveness and therefore increased demand for energy carriers
Keywords:
#Demand for energy carriers #system dynamics #forecast #charm and attractiveness of the business area Link
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
Visitor: