S545 : Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Babelrood basin
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Agricultural Engineering > MSc > 2020
Authors:
Tocktam Imani [Author], Mahdi Delghandi[Supervisor], Prof. Samad Emamgholizadeh[Supervisor]
Abstarct: Climate change caused by human activities leads to a significant impact on global mean temperature, sea level and extreme rainfall etc. Possible changes in runoff properties due to climate change are currently one of the main concerns in long term planning of water resource and float protection. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources. On the other hand, significant uncertainties exist in the analysis of the impa cts of climate change on hydrological and water resources systems. Therefore, in this research impacts of climate change on runoff properties of Babelrood catchment were evaluated. For this purpose, 22 AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission (GHG) scenarios (RCp4.5 and RCP8.5) is selected for determination of climate change scenarios. ∆P which is long term -thirty years- precipitation differences between baxseline (1971-2000) and future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) at monthly scale calculated for each AOGCM model under each GHG emissions scenario. then ∆P was derived for three probability levels (0.50, 0.75 and 0.90) from Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF). Using the measured daily precipitation for the baxseline period (1971-2000) and change-factor method, daily precipitation time series under 3 probability levels generated for future periods. In the next stage, design precipitation for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 500-year return periods was determined for past and future periods. In order to investigate the climate change impacts on runoff properties, WMS runoff-precipitation model was used. WMS model calibrated and validated using 3 and 2 rainfall events, respectively. Results showed that selected runoff-precipitation model could simulate properly peak discharge and runoff volume. It was also found that in the future periods, in the cold and warm months of the year, we will expect an increase and decrease in rainfall, respectively. Overall, it can be said that under climate change condition (in both emission scenarios), the amount of discharge and the volume of floods for design precipitation of different return periods will increase.
Keywords:
#runoff #climate Change #AOGCM #Downscaling #WMS/HEC-HMS Model #Babelrood catchment Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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