HA148 : Assessment the impacts of energy prices adjustment on energy sector investment (A System Dynamic Approach)
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2016
Authors:
Fatemeh Qahramani [Author], Mohammad Ali Molaei[Supervisor], Hossein Rezaee [Advisor]
Abstarct: This study aims at providing the effects of energy price adjustment on energy sector investment as well as investment management in the energy sector, using a system dynamic approach, with Vensim software. Provided model in this study aims at a frxamework consists of the production sector (GDP), consumption sector (both private and government sector consumption), the investment includes investment in the energy sector and other sectors (non-energy), and energy, including oil and gas and electricity. In this model the causal relationship between the energy sector and other sectors of the economy have been simulated through dynamic systems approach, parameters of the model variables obtained through the software Eveiws with historical data entry and then were calibrated. Then through three scenarios, Sensitivity analysis of the model and the effects of price changing of the energy containers on energy consumption, energy investment and GDP growth, as a major strategy of energy section have been examined to assess those impacts on energy investment management.in order to that assessment, three scenarios have been established: baxse run) the trend in energy prices changes and oil revenues are assumed to be real; 1) decrease of revenues from oil export till 1395 and oil revenues stabilization since 1395, and constant prices of other energy carriers, then as a result the investment in the energy sector dropped, and the slope of consumption amounts is very low but positive due to price stabilization. ; And 2) increase in oil revenues from export, according to world oil prices & the lifting of international sanctions, increase in energy prices in lower level of inflation. So in result of that, energy consumption decreased. The investment sector of this model did not fall because of higher oil export revenue and also increase in energy revenues from the sale in the country. According to the results of the model decision makers in the energy sector would give the best policy and solutions to the government and organizations, so that, given shortage of energy resources in the world and the reduction of these resources, supplying these resources are managed and controlled in the economy.
Keywords:
#Energy #energy prices adjustment #energy sector investment Link
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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