TN750 : Planning in Open Mines, Considering Geological and Financial Uncertainty(case study: Shahrak iron ore mine)
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics Engineering > MSc > 2017
Authors:
Safdar Soleymani [Author], Mohammad Ataei[Supervisor], Reza Khalou Kakaie[Supervisor]
Abstarct: Production planning is carried out in mines after the collection of information on geomechanics, hydrology and economics. The main purpose of production planning is to determine the timing of the application of ore extraction and waste in a given time period, in such a way as to maximize. In this thesis, considering the effect of geology uncertainty and economic uncertainty of production planning in the iron ore of the town, has been investigated. For this purpose, after the Kriging modeling, a guaranteed assurance has been made. Then, using a sequential Gaussian simulation method, 30 probabilities are realized with the ore for quantification of the uncertainty of the mineral material. On the other hand, using the concept of the real options approach, the binomial tree method has been used to consider the effect of the uncertainty price of mineral materials in production planning. Therefore, in this study, according to 30 simulated data, the uncertainty of the final grade has been studied. The obtained results show that the net present value in the Kriging method is less than the average of 30 simulated. Also, in the case of economic uncertainty, the net present value is calculated for the Kriging model and the results indicate that the final range is constant at prices higher than $ 30 in the mine. Finally, for the effect of the uncertainty of the grade and the resulting price, the final limit divided by the four net values of the net present value in each phase was determined and it was shown that the changes in the net present value of the extracted fractions in the Kriging model with an average of approximately 30 simulated almost models have been constant. Considering uncertainty, price and grade are considered in the final range and planning. The current value in the Kriging model is simulated in the predicted prices derived from the binomial tree that is less than the average of the model.
Keywords:
#uncertainty #Gaussian simulation #real options #production planning Link
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
Visitor: