Abstarct: Today, the issue of commercialization has become an important concern for all start-ups with a history of operating in the business environment. The reason for this importance can be found in the role of commercialization in the ultimate success of a business. In addition, the ability to make decisions and predict a company's performance baxsed on the information available and current records can also improve the efficiency of decisions related to the commercialization process. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the commercialization process of knowledge-baxsed products and also to predict the probability of success of the commercialization process. Using the rules extracted from this study, the product commercialization decision-making process will be facilitated and at the same time efficient for researchers and managers. Start-up companies located in the Science and Technology Park of Kerman province constitute the statistical population of this study. In this research, according to the purpose and questions raised, two methods of library and field studies have been used. We have provided the questionnaire to ten experts of Kerman Science and Technology Park to examine the importance and the probability of these factors occurring. For this purpose, experts were asked to rate these factors baxsed on the five likret scoring spectrum. Then, from the ANP questionnaire, the preference of the identified factors over each other was evaluated by experts, and Super Decision software was entered to determine the weight. According to the results, the appropriate lifespan of the technology obtained from the invention, which prevents the expansion of the invention, with the weight of 0.164 has won the first rank. Political obstacles such as sanctions on raw materials and technology with a weight of 0.145 have the second rank and knowledge and understanding of key tools and techniques for proper marketing of products with a weight of 0.134 has gained the third rank. Which were in the growth or establishment stage, successful and unsuccessful companies have been identified. A total of 100 start-ups were identified in Kerman province and surrounding cities such as Rafsanjan, Jiroft, Sirjan, etc., which included 11 successful companies and 11 unsuccessful companies.In designing the questionnaire, the effect of the identified factors on the failure or success of these companies is examined. The rationale between the collected information was analyzed baxsed on Ruff collection theory and political barriers, appropriate technology longevity, financial support, finding potential markets, marketing techniques were identified as the most important influencing factors with the help of Ruff collection 18 law theory has been logically extracted that some of them have weak support factors. Among these 3 rules has been selected with the most repetition and according to other validation rules.