HA140 : Housing market analysis and its price forecasting until year 1405 (Case study: Tehran)
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2016
Authors:
Sepideh Hasan Goodarzi [Author], [Supervisor]
Abstarct: Identifying housing marketing in Tehran has an important role in policy making of urban housing section of the country and contributing effectively and timely decisions. This study has been used to analyze the housing market and forecast housing prices in Tehran till 1405 by using a combination of dynamic systems and econometric methods Stata, microfit and Vencim softwares. In this study, first CLD model has been used for the study of Tehran housing dynamics and then for simulating , for Study of the has been created CLD, SFD model is designed and to determine the relationship between variables as far as possible Using real data, In mathematical relationships and econometric estimates are used and relationships between variables have been set. To validate the model created, tests of reality testing, test extreme conditions sensitivity Test is used the test to some extent determine the validity of the model and conforms models are created with reality. The results of the model indicate an increase in housing prices during the period 1393 to 1405 is an exponential growth pattern. This may be due in land prices, demand and supply of housing searched. Then, after confirming the validity of the model is designed scenarios. Scenarios in housing demand, Scenarios in housing supply, Scenarios for the price of the land and Scenarios related to the government loans. After that some proposals have been presented to control the housing market.
Keywords:
#housing market #housing prices #supply and demand for housing #dynamical systems #methods ARDL Link
Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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