TK879 : Modeling The Effects of Communication Network on Power Grid Reliability Using The Interdependent Markov Chain Approach
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Electrical Engineering > MSc > 2021
Authors:
[Author], Omid Reza Maarouzi[Supervisor], Mohsen Assili[Advisor]
Abstarct: smart grids consist of tightly-coupled systems, namely a power grid and a communication system. While today’s power grids are highly reliable and modern control and communication systems have been deployed to further enhance their reliability, historical data suggest that they are yet vulnerable to large failures. A small set of initial disturbances in power grids in conjunction with lack of effective, corrective actions in a timely manner can trigger a sequence of dependent component failures, called cascading failures. The main thrust of this dissertation is to build a probabilistic frxamework for modeling cascading failures in power grids while capturing their interactions with the coupled communication systems so that the risk of cascading failures in the composite complex electric-cyber infrastructures can be examined, analyzed and predicted. A scalable and analytically tractable continuous-time Markov chain model for stochastic dynamics of cascading failures in power grids is constructed while retaining key physical attributes and operating characteristics of the power grid. The key idea of the proposed frxamework is to simplify the state space of the complex power system while capturing the effects of the omitted variables through the transition probabilities and their parametric dependence on physical attributes and operating characteristics of the system. The cascading failures are simulated with a coupled power-system simulation frxamework. Specifically, the probabilistic model enables the prediction of the evolution of the blackout probability in time. Furthermore, the asymptotic analysis of the blackout probability enables the calculation of the probability mass function of the blackout size, which has been shown to have a heavy tail. A key benefit of the model is that it enables the characterization of the severity of cascading failures in terms of a set of operating characteristics of the power grid. In this dissertation Further, a novel interdependent Markov chain model is developed, which provides a general probabilistic frxamework for capturing the effects of interactions among interdependent infrastructures on cascading failures. A key insight obtained from this model is that interdependencies between two systems can make two individually reliable systems behave unreliably. we show that due to the interdependencies two chains with non-heavy tail asymptotic failure distribution can result in a heavy tail distribution when coupled.
Keywords:
#Interdependent Systems #Critical Infrastructures #Cascading Failures #Markov Chain #Power-law distribution Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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